Scotch & the P-word: the Evolution of Premiumisation

The Cambridge Dictionary defines premiumisation as “the activity of trying to make a product or service appear more expensive and special”. The word itself may be the result of a mild mangling of the English language, but premiumisation has been arguably the most influential trend in the modern market for Scotch whisky, encouraging people to pay more and trade up to more expensive single malts and blends. 

But we’re living in different times today. Macroeconomic and geopolitical storms, the rising cost of living and price hikes caused by spiralling inflation and production costs – all have dented consumer confidence, making people question whether so-called affordable luxuries like Scotch are a wise purchase when paying the bills might take priority. 

For Scotch, single malt appears to be bearing the brunt of this new reality. The value of single malt export shipments fell by 17% last year, according to HMRC figures quoted by the Scotch Whisky Association (SWA) – and early indications are that trade is not improving in 2025: HMRC shipment numbers for the first half of the year show that malts suffered another 10% value drop. 

What’s going on? The struggles of the US market, Scotch’s most lucrative destination by some distance, aren’t helping matters. While shipments Stateside only fell by 1% last year, they remain 9% down on their pre-pandemic level, when the market was worth more than £1bn to the industry. 

Meanwhile, depletions data in the US – actual sales, in other words – are even gloomier. According to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS), single malt Scotch fell 17% by volume and 14% by value in 2024 – and blends, which have generally held up better in other markets, fared almost as badly, plummeting 14% and 15% respectively. 

If there is a market that could help fill the rather large gap left by the underperforming US, it is India. It may only be one-quarter the size of the US in value terms, but shipments were up 14% by value last year, and are now 50% higher than they were in 2019. Throw in the recently signed free trade agreement (FTA), which will immediately halve import tariffs to 75%, before cutting them further to 40% in a decade’s time, and you have the most lucrative export opportunity for Scotch in a generation. 

But. There’s always a but, and especially when it comes to trading in India. The market remains both fiendishly complex and highly political, with individual states shaping their own regulatory and fiscal frameworks, adding both cost and complication for brand owners. 

Aside from boasting the world’s largest population, and enjoying highly attractive demographic and economic trends, India is also almost certainly the most whisky-mad nation on Earth – but Scotch is not the only whisky origin targeting the increasingly sophisticated bars of Delhi, Mumbai and Bengaluru. 

Best-selling single malt category in India last year? Not Scotch, according to beverage alcohol data and insights provider IWSR, but India. For all the cheap-as-chips, high-volume IMFL whiskies – neutral grain alcohol teaspooned with bulk Scotch – that dominate the Indian market, a rising tide of high-quality, homegrown malts such as Rampur, Paul John and Amrut is forging a strong position based on quality and local pride. 

Best-selling bottled-in-origin (BIO) spirit in India? Jameson Irish whiskey, which has made huge strides in recent years, making India the brand’s second-largest global market behind the US. Then you have Bourbon, Japanese whisky… there’s no doubting the opportunities that India offers Scotch in terms of premiumisation, but the competition will be fierce. 

So is premiumisation dead for Scotch? Most definitely not, but it is both more fragmented and more elusive. Consumer research shows that people are becoming more demanding, and less simply transactional, in their relationships with alcohol brands. They haven’t stopped spending, but they want to know precisely why something costs so much, craving a connection and engagement before parting with their cash. 

And it could be worse: Scotch could be Cognac. According to IWSR’s 2025 Status Spirits Strategic Study – examining trends for spirits with a globally weighted average retail selling price of US$100 or more per bottle – Cognac endured an annus horribilis in 2024, with status-level sales down 14% in value terms. 

Scotch may also have declined, by 8%, but blends and malts combined now have a 38% value share of global status spirits sales, ahead of Cognac’s 36%. “Having become the leading status spirits category in 2023, Scotch consolidated its position in 2024,” says Guy Wolfe, IWSR senior insights manager. 

“Despite losing value as most key markets struggled, duty free was a bright spot. Lower US tariff exposure and the recent UK/India free trade agreement should help support sales moving forward. Scotch is expected to lead future prestige and prestige-plus spirits growth.” 

Notably, and perhaps counter-intuitively, blends outperformed malts at the status spirits level in 2024, reinforcing the broader trends seen with global shipments last year. The narrative of the past generation or more that single malts are somehow more desirable and authentic than blends may finally be unravelling, as consumers grow increasingly resistant to the unsustainable price rises enforced for the latter.  

According to figures quoted by whisky writer Dave Broom, the median price of single malt aged for 21 to 25 years has risen by £280 in the past five years alone; further down the food chain, Macallan 18YO is now roughly twice the price of Johnnie Walker Blue Label. Something seems to be out of kilter. 

Beyond its scale and global reach, perhaps Scotch’s greatest strength is its price elasticity; you can pick up a 70cl bottle in the UK for not much more than £10, or you can spend tens of thousands of pounds on the same amount of liquid at auction. 

Single malts may have been hit simultaneously by their own rising prices and growing consumer resistance to paying more, but blends are undoubtedly capable of picking up the slack. Nor should that surprise anyone: after all, in export value terms, they’re still roughly twice the size of single malts.  

This diversity and flexibility remains Scotch’s super strength; its premiumisation journey may have hit a few bumps in the road lately, but it isn’t over just yet. 

Richard Woodard is a journalist and drinks writer with more than 20 years’ experience covering the global spirits industry, with a particular focus on Scotch whisky.